Diplomatic Plans Ready for Presented to Moscow Within Days, Says Ukraine's President
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.
Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain
After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.
Security Guarantees and Allied Backing
“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.
Earlier, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Moscow's Stance and Land Issue
The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”
The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.
American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Possible Scenarios
It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.
