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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest upset.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still